With almost five years of data and nine volumes of the Survey, the PwC RE Investor Survey has generated enough data for the German market to take a step back and look at the historical developments.
We took a deep dive analysis into our historical results and the data for the German office sector has revealed that:
- In terms of minimum ARYs, Berlin started at the third from the bottom in 2014 but ended up being the first in 2019. Compare this result to Stuttgart – being the second from the top just before Munich in 2014 – the city ended up in fifth place in 2019 (Fig. 1).
- The minimum ARYs for the Regional Cities and the Regions have dropped by 25% on average.
- The rental growth development expectations have increase from 2.0% to 3.7% (+80bps) in Berlin and from 1.4% to 2.0% (+43 bps) in Hamburg (Fig. 2).
- In 2014, we had a uniform picture of the rent-free periods. Compared to our last issue, where we see that rent-free periods have decreased by almost half in Munich, Berlin and Stuttgart since 2014.
- Marketing periods have also exhibited a comparable 50% drop.
- There was a slight drop of extension probabilities in 2015 but as positive rent development was confirmed by the market, we see a slight but stable increase of this parameter across all Top7 Cities (Fig. 3).
Do you wonder how the data for retail properties have developed over the past years? Stay tuned for retail analyses next month!